Haydn’s Creation; a new pandemic model

Late in his life, Franz Joseph Haydn composed two great oratorios: The Creation and The Seasons. These works are scored for classical orchestra, soloists, and chorus. They constitute the final, brilliant, triumphant summation of Western classical music before Beethoven and his followers drove it off the rails.

Today I watched a DVD of The Creation on the home big screen. This work sets a libretto based on the beginning of Genesis, parts of Psalms, and Milton’s Paradise Lost. It has recitative. It has double fugue and what sounds to me like invertible counterpoint. It has pianoforte continuo. It has modern orchestration. It also has grandeur, humility, and piety. There is nothing lacking in this perfect work. You can get started on Youtube here:


Eventually you will want your own DVD, such as this:


I have been studying the timeline of alleged CoVID deaths around the world, trying to fit a predictive model to this, so we can forecast where we are going. This graph shows the best I can do so far. The blue curve shows claimed new CoVID deaths from around the world on a daily basis (data smoothed to remove noise). The gray curve fits a multiple of a probability distribution to the data.

The gray curve is not enough to explain the data. There is a clear wave-like pattern superimposed on the data: the famous “waves”. I introduced a sinusoidal component into my model and did the best fit; the orange curve is the result. Here are some observations.

  • The model currently projects a total of 11 million deaths by whatever definition was used to tally the existing 5.4 million deaths. In other words, deaths, by whatever definition, can be expected to double if definitions remain consistent.
  • Deaths peaked in late January 2021, around Inauguration Day, and are on the decline.
  • The fit of the model is unusually good between November 2020 and December 2021.
  • The model computes that the waves have period 126 days, implying there are about 3 per year.
  • The model computes that pandemic deaths began in August 2016, one month after the political conventions. Fausti said in 2017 that it was guaranteed that Trump would face a pandemic before the end of his term. We should have listened to him.

More VC Nurses Blow Whistle on ‘Overwhelming’ Numbers of Heart Attacks, Clotting, Strokes


‘Nothing to see here’: 3 more top soccer players fall ill as speculation about COVID jabs grows


New Zealand okays euthanasia for COVID patients” This achieves the desired goal quickly and cheaply.


Dr. Bhattacharya: “We Cannot Stop the Spread of COVID, But We Can End the Pandemic” Sadly, he is pro-injection and does not mention HCQ and IVM. I hope he will get there.


Vaccines Do Not Stop COVID-19 Spread as Governments Claim: Legal Advocacy Group


Blood pressure numbers rise during pandemic


How to Create a Health Care Crisis” The endless crisis – a leftist’s dream.


Here is what you do in a crisis: “Emergency Powers Deployed to Impose Vaccine Passports


The statement below is from an old-fashioned liberal.

This man should lose his medical license immediately.

Doctor: “Is COVID Now Becoming a Pandemic of the Vaccinated?” Yes.


FOIA docs reveal Pfizer shot caused avalanche of miscarriages, stillborn babies” The injections should not be approved before all the clinical data is released.


Alex Jones interviews the great Dr. Vladimir Zev Zelenko again: “Dr Zelenko Warns Of COVID Vaccine Mark of the Beast System” 50 minutes.


The Vaccine Is A Depopulation Weapon Warns Top Pfizer Scientist” 34 minutes.


Soft tissue cancers up 550%. Twitter’s response? Close the account.

Pfizer/BioNTech Covid Injections reprogram both adaptive and innate immune responses” This is genocidally deadly.


Omicron Infections 80% Less Likely To Result In Hospitalization


NFL chief medical officer: Symptomatic players driving COVID-19 spread; no indications of asymptomatic spread


A Myth is Born: How CDC, FDA, and Media Wove a Web of Ivermectin Lies That Outlives The Truth” Strange, how that works.


New Hampshire Fights To Remove Children After Parents Treated Them With Ivermectin” The readers conclude that “Live Free or Die” is in name only.


On second thought: Israelis who changed their minds about the vax” Interesting stories, including in the comments section. The only free country in the Middle East? I am not so sure.


The Army is looking for a few good resettlement specialists. How could that possibly go wrong?


If you have not already seen it: “Donald Trump Full Interview with Candace Owens” His focus on the injections is troubling. At least he opposes the mandates. They talk about many other topics as well. 27 minutes.


Could this be the final straw that converts millions of conservatives from Don to Ron?” The Florida State Guard, driving leftists apoplectic – despite the fact that California, New York, and 20 other states have them.


Albemarle parents to sue schools over anti-racism policy” Governor Youngkin cannot be inaugurated fast enough. By the way, Critical Racism Theory is racist; MLK is anti-racist.


‘Nobody Wants This Crap’: DeSantis Champions Bill Allowing Parents, Employees to Sue Over CRT Harm” We need this nationwide.


Welcome to the insane world of so-called transgenderism” – including a pregnant woman who thinks she is male.


Diversity is Not Our Strength” An exploration of what culture is.


Democrats in trouble with Hispanics.

The Balkanization of America Continues and Deep Blue States Are Losing the Argument as 2022 Nears” Wake up, America!


Paul Joseph Watson: “What have they done to us?” 9 minutes.

J-6 Attorney Releases Video of Capitol Police Pummeling Female Trump Supporter Victoria White in Tunnel Area — Beating Her with Batons, Punching Her in Face, Then They Paraded Her Through Capitol” “She is hit approximately thirty- five times over the course of 4 minutes and 30 seconds, while appearing to be begging for mercy the entire time. She is hit with the baton while facing away. She is hit with the baton while facing forward. She is speared and poked with the baton about the face so as to inflict maximum pain. She collapses more than once and is stood up by the officers only to be maced and beaten again. At some point, White-shirt puts away his baton, not because he is showing mercy because he has a clear avenue to her face. As such, he unloads on the defenseless woman punching her five times in five seconds, directly in the face, with all of his might.” I know, it’s just one bad apple; 99.999999% of them are really quite saintly. If you still believe that government is not the enemy, then watch the video, and imagine that happening to your wife-mother-sister-daughter. If a dog acted this way, it would be put down.


Russia now has 265,000 troops near Ukraine border” It is quite funny to read the pro-Russia trolls in blog comments angrily pointing out that Russia’s troops are on Russian soil, so Russia has nothing to apologize for, but… When Ukrainian troops are deployed on Ukrainian soil, this is considered to be terribly provocative. Can we have consistent standards?


Biden, Trump, NATO and Ukraine


Egon von Greyerz: “CHAOS AND THE TRIUMPH OF SURVIVAL” This great column is about CoVID – and debt – and derivates – the latter of which total $1.4 QUADRILLION = $1,400 trillion, roughly 65 times US GDP.


Gold and silver prospects for 2022


See you soon!

3 thoughts on “Haydn’s Creation; a new pandemic model

  1. I don’t recall hearing Israel touted as the only *free* country in the Middle East. What I’ve heard ad nauseum is that we’re the only *democracy* (sometimes clarified as “the only *true* democracy”) in the ME.

    Small comfort. As has been noted, “Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for dinner.”

    So many love to tout Israel as “Jewish and democratic”. To tell the truth, if I had to make an either/or choice (and honestly, I believe it will come to that), I would prefer that Israel be a Jewish state. Look what democracy has brought us: For ages already, Achmed Tibi — who was AN ADVISOR TO YASSIR ARAFAT yemach shemo vezichro [=may he rot in hell] has been a Member of the Knesset! He and Mansur Abbas, of the Muslim Brotherhood, and their buddies would be able as Members of the Knesset to have a voice in deciding Israel’s policy on Who is a Jew (i.e., who can make aliyah), or what kashrut will or will not be recognized in this “Jewish state”. Or, for that matter, if, when, and how Israel will respond to Iranian efforts to annihilate us. HaShem yerachem! [= God, have mercy!]

    Liked by 2 people

    1. What did you expect? Democracy was invented by the Greeks. I hear they were cousins of the Philistines. Regardless of whether that is true, neither were ever great friends of ours. Democracy was basically ancient communism. Athens ruled over a slave empire, after all. The American founders knew they should be wary of such Greek gifts.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. I still prefer John Field to Haydn. I don’t know that Field was exactly a follower of Beethoven, more like a younger contemporary. Anyway, I prefer being off rather than on a rail. But Surak’s taste in music could be worse. I once tried to listen to some prepared piano. I felt like I was in a cage.

    Even Field was not the end of music. Some of those Strauss waltzes are delightful. I may scandalize Surak with my degeneracy, but I’ve even found myself getting all the way into the 20th century. Gershwin wasn’t bad and I am distinctly happier for having heard some Mancini.

    The more the merrier. The Haydn Boys were good though. Well, maybe not Hansl quite so much as the others, but still plenty good compared to the average croakers, and I am decidedly below average. I’m sure they could have had a shot at being bigger than the Beatles if their voices hadn’t all broken. Haydn may be famous for his Creation, and another Haydn for his requiem, but I rather think they, wherever their souls are, would like people to keep producing music and would agree, if perhaps with a touch of reluctant jealousy, that they are not the final beginning and end. Heck, they might even have found a bit of Saint-Saens to their liking. I do hope I have not caused Surak any terrible earache suggesting such decadence, but perchance a little Satie might be good for what occasionally ails us? I may have driven Surak’s absolute pitch off a step with that one.

    It was actually that fellow Paganini who may have driven things off the rails. He was basically a proto-heavy metal superstar, wasn’t he? I never could understand why virtuoso musicians wanted to thrash about like a bunch of nuts.

    Anyway, Surak’s list of good music is as good as any, better than many, and probably mine.

    Liked by 1 person

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